The strong upper level low is digging in up in the Dakotas. Our team is working hard looking at forecast maps and SPC maps on this very large system.
As the tropical moisture pumps in from the Gulf of Mexico bringing in warm moist air, we have cool Fall temps coming in from the NW. These two combinations will cause a huge mess in the plains today and tomorrow.
Texas and Oklahoma looks to be the highest flooding risk today and tomorrow. Anywhere from 3 to 8 inches or more of heavy rain will cause a flooding issue for those two states. Expect periods of heavy down pours accompanied with storms that could be severe. The threat of tornadoes is low for these two states. Some hail, damaging winds and lightning will be more a factor.
Tornado threat will be more in the Northern Plains from Omaha to Dakotas as the upper level low continues to dig in and get deeper. This will cause some convection around those areas.
Kansas, MO, Arkansas should expect heavy rains more tomorrow. Our team is working hard on keeping an eye on this system. ~Nicholas